KBRA Assigns AA Rating with a Stable Outlook to the MTA Transportation Revenue Refunding Green Bonds, Series 2024A (Climate Bond Certified); Affirms Parity Debt
KBRA assigns a long-term rating of AA with a Stable Outlook to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Transportation Revenue Refunding Green Bonds, Series 2024A (Climate Bond Certified). Concurrently, KBRA affirms the long-term rating of AA with a Stable Outlook on the MTA's outstanding Transportation Revenue Bonds.
The long-term rating reflects the continued, gradual post-pandemic recovery in MTA transit and commuter rail ridership, and the Authority's significantly improved operating budget, which is balanced annually through 2027 with the resolution of previously projected operating deficits totaling $6.535 billion.
Key Credit Considerations
The rating was assigned because of the following key credit considerations:
Credit Positives
- The gross pledge of Transportation Resolution revenues supports robust debt service coverage. Sound liquidity and reserves provide adequate operating flexibility.
- New York State's actions to de-risk MTA's operating budget and eliminate projected Plan Period deficits are credit positive.
- MTA's $1.5 trillion in transportation assets serve over 15 million people. They are essential to the future of the New York metropolitan area, a region critical to New York State and the nation.
Credit Challenges
- The MTA has identified aging infrastructure, climate change, and evolving ridership patterns as key long-term challenges that will require extensive capital investment. Existing leverage is high; however, dedicated taxes and CBDTP revenues are expected to support the MTA's most critical long-term capital plan initiatives.
- MTA's high fixed cost burden, including contractually required labor-related obligations, remains an impediment to ongoing, structurally balanced operations.
Rating Sensitivities
For upgrade:
- Delivery of critical Capital Plan elements, including state-of-good-repair projects, with maintenance of strong debt service coverage from pledged Transportation Revenues.
For downgrade:
- The reappearance of significant unfunded deficits during the Plan Period.
- Sustained ridership declines.
To access rating and relevant documents, click here.
Methodologies
- Public Finance: U.S. Public Toll Roads, Bridges & Tunnels Revenue Bond Rating Methodology
- ESG Global Rating Methodology
Disclosures
A description of all substantially material sources that were used to prepare the credit rating and information on the methodology(ies) (inclusive of any material models and sensitivity analyses of the relevant key rating assumptions, as applicable) used in determining the credit rating is available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) located here.
Information on the meaning of each rating category can be located here.
Only those ratings on securities issued by this Issuer that also are denoted on the Security Ratings tab for this Issuer on KBRA.com as "endorsed" by Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited into the European Union and/or by Kroll Bond Rating Agency UK Limited into the UK are covered by the disclosures set forth in this press release and the corresponding Information Disclosure Form. No other ratings on issuances by this Issuer have been endorsed into the European Union or the UK, and the disclosures set forth herein and in the corresponding Information Disclosure Form are inapplicable to those ratings and may not be used for regulatory purposes by European Union or UK investors in these securities.
Further disclosures relating to this rating action are available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) referenced above. Additional information regarding KBRA policies, methodologies, rating scales and disclosures are available at www.kbra.com.
About KBRA
Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC (KBRA) is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered as a CRA with the European Securities and Markets Authority. Kroll Bond Rating Agency UK Limited is registered as a CRA with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider.
Doc ID: 1003440
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