Colby College Poll Provides New Insights about Rural Voters and the 2024 Presidential Election

Just as many in the media are saying that rural voters have made up their mind in favor of Donald Trump, a new national poll from Colby College indicates that in the countryside the race for the White House is anything but over. Results from an oversample of rural communities found that specific messages about economic development in rural communities and changes to border policies might break the near lock that Trump has in rural areas. Top-line findings of the new survey show that:

• Nearly a third of rural voters say their vote for Donald Trump is really against Joe Biden, and only about one-half of rural Trump supporters are "very happy" with him at the top of the ticket.
• Two in three rural Republicans support Trump in the primary contests.
• Courtroom convictions will have a limited impact on Trump's popularity with rural voters.
• A large majority of rural voters have not seen examples of Biden's promise to invest billions into their communities.
• Compared to urban residents, rural Americans were more likely to say that the economy is in horrible shape and that their specific communities are doing worse than the country as a whole.
• Biden's "democracy is at risk" message is falling flat in rural areas, and a large majority of rural Americans, including Trump supporters, do not think that "people will need to take drastic action" if an opposing candidate wins.

"Whether rural voters are full-throated supporters of the GOP and conservative policies is an open question," said Assistant Professor of Government Nicholas Jacobs, a co-researcher on the survey. "Much of this support is a reaction against Democrats and a widely perceived disregard for the fate of rural life and rural people. If Biden can show that he authentically cares about rural voters, that his administration has actually invested in rural America, and convince voters that he hears their concerns about border security, he could make some headway in the countryside, especially with the third of Trump voters who might be up for grabs."

The survey, which reached 2,500 likely voters Jan. 5-10, 2024, was developed by Jacobs and Professor of Government Daniel Shea and sponsored by Colby College. It is the fifth wave of Colby's The Rural Voter Survey (RVS) and complements and extends the insights of their new book, The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America (Columbia University Press). Launched at the end of 2023, the book draws on the largest sample of rural voters ever conducted for a single study.

"The current rural/urban divide is unprecedented?and we know that rural communities will play a major role in shaping electoral outcomes in federal, state, and primary races," commented Shea, who also served as a co-researcher on the survey. "Rural voters constitute a significant portion of the electorate (roughly 20%). If Biden can't make inroads with these voters, and if he loses support among other groups?namely young and minority voters?his pathway to a win will narrow."

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Trump's Popularity

• In the Republican primary, 63% of rural voters favor Donald Trump over any other candidate, with Nikki Haley pulling in around 14%. Nationally, this is nearly 15 points higher than Republican voters living in urban areas.

• Asked about the January 6th charges, some 61% of rural Trump voters said they were "phony, made-up charges by the Democrats to keep him from office," 13 points higher than Trump voters living outside of rural America.
• What if Trump is convicted of these charges? Rural voters seem steadfast: 92% said a conviction would not change their support for Trump.

• And yet, a slim majority?just 55%?of rural Trump voters are "very happy" with Trump as the Republican nominee.

Analysis: When it comes to geography, the voters seem fixed, and Trump's "resilience" is owed to rural Republicans' steadfast loyalties. If Biden continues to lose ground with other demographic groups (young and minority voter defection), that will imperil his reelection fortunes. The potential good news for Biden is that nearly a majority of rural Trump voters are not super happy that Trump will be the GOP nominee.

Enthusiasm for Biden Is Low

• Only 35% of rural Americans said they'll likely vote for Joe Biden in the general election.

• One-third of rural voters supporting Trump (31%) say that their vote is really a vote against Joe Biden. In comparison, 43% of urban Trump voters say the same.

• Just 29% of Biden supporters in rural America are very happy that he is the nominee, and only 38% of rural Biden voters think it is "very likely" that he will beat Donald Trump. When asked if their vote is for Biden or against Trump, a majority of rural voters supporting Biden (53%) say it is really against Trump.

• Asked if they are familiar with Biden's efforts to rebuild roads and bridges and other infrastructure projects, just 23% of rural respondents answer in the affirmative, with urban respondents 10 points more likely to have heard at least something. Asked about new investments in broadband internet, a full 41% of rural voters report hearing "nothing at all."

Analysis: The lackluster support for Biden in rural areas is happening in spite of the concerted moves to attract rural voters, going so far as to launch a rural "barnstorming" tour last fall. On family farms, the president touted "Bidenomics" and the billions in aid his administration has promised rural communities. But rural voters don't seem to be listening. While they may be open to other candidates, the data suggest that Joe Biden might be the problem.

It's All About the Economy

• Compared to urban residents, rural voters were more likely to say that the economy is in horrible shape (27%), that their specific communities are doing worse than the country as a whole (39%), and that they have yet to financially recover from before the Covid-19 pandemic (50%).

• Nearly 45% of Trump voters in rural America say that a Joe Biden presidency is going to hurt their specific rural community; just 33% of Trump voters living in urban America were similarly concerned about a Biden presidency.

Analysis: There is a problem with Biden's overarching message about "rural America." It overlooks the fact that rural America is vast?made up of thousands of small communities, each with its own histories, economies, and sense of place. Moreover, the economic consequences of the pandemic are still being felt in rural parts.

Immigration is More of a Concern than Abortion Access or Gun Control

• Looking closer at the third of Trump's vote that is up for grabs?those who said their vote was more against Biden than for Trump?one issue dominates: immigration. Nearly 20% of these lukewarm Trump voters say it is the top issue confronting this country (higher than any other issue, other than the state of the economy). Nearly 60% of this group say that they are "very concerned" about what would happen at the U.S./Mexico border if Joe Biden wins the presidency, while less than half of urban Trump voters up for grabs express the same concern.

• In comparison, these voters are less concerned about access to guns if Biden reclaims the White House (50%), and even less worried about changes to abortion access if Biden wins (just 22%).

Analysis: It has become routine to say that rural voters have their minds made up. But this poll suggests that while Trump is way ahead, many rural voters wish someone else was on the ballot. These voters are still making a tough cost/benefit calculation. They are worried about Trump's character and potential dangers of a second term. But they are also truly concerned about a set of issues?and immigration is one of them. The data show that if Biden is able to nudge the benefit side of the scale then the cost of a Trump vote may be too high for some voters.

Rural America is Not a Hotbed of Political Extremism

• Despite the fact that 70% of rural Americans believe "it matters a lot who wins because the future of our country is at stake," (compared to 63% nationwide), only 27% of rural voters?including 23% of rural Trump voters?think that if the opposing candidate wins in November, "people will need to take drastic action in order to stop [Biden or Trump] from taking office."

• Nor are rural voters more likely than urban voters to say that the opposing party is a "threat to the future of America." While 38% of rural Trump voters strongly believe that about Democrats, and 36% of non-rural Biden voters think that about Republicans, a majority do not.

Final Analysis: There is an extremist edge to our politics, to be sure. But these data, like Colby's previous studies, suggest it would be a mistake to write off rural America as the land of rage and rebellion. Rather, the nuanced story is about place and economic hardship. Rural voters care about the future of their democracy, but they are scared?really scared?about the future of their own community. Persuasion in politics is an art, not a slogan. Convincing rural voters that "Biden is making a difference" has been a tough sell, but it is not an impossible one.

For a complete set of the poll's findings, as well as key cross tabulations and a detailed discussion of the methodology, please visit: Colby College Rural Voter Presidential Election Poll