Subjects: NPT, ECO
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Again in November
NEW YORK, Dec. 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.5 percent in November 2023 to 103.0 (2016=100), following a (downwardly revised) decline of 1.0 percent in October. The LEI contracted by 3.5 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months (November 2022 to May 2023).
"The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy. The Leading Credit Indextm and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term. Despite the economy's ongoing resilience?as revealed by the US CEI?and December's improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in November 2023 to 111.2 (2016=100), after no change in October. The CEI is now up 1.0 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, compared to 0.7 percent growth over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators?payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production?are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index were positive in November, with personal income less transfer payments being the strongest contributor, followed by much smaller positive contributions from the remaining three components.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.5 percent in November 2023 to 119.2 (2016 = 100), following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. The LAG is up by 0.8 percent over the six-month period from May to November 2023, an improvement compared to 0.5 percent growth over the previous six months.
NOTE: Next month's release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at [email protected].
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes | ||||||||
2023 | 6-month | |||||||
Sep | Oct | Nov | May to | |||||
Leading Index | 104.5 | r | 103.5 | r | 103.0 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.8 | r | -1.0 | r | -0.5 | -3.5 | ||
Diffusion | 10.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 30.0 | ||||
Coincident Index | 111.0 | r | 111.0 | r | 111.2 | p | ||
Percent Change | 0.3 | r | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | |||
Diffusion | 100.0 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | ||||
Lagging Index | 118.3 | r | 118.6 | 119.2 | p | |||
Percent Change | -0.1 | r | 0.3 | r | 0.5 | 0.8 | ||
Diffusion | 35.7 | 50.0 | 64.3 | 28.6 | ||||
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected | ||||||||
Indexes equal 100 in 2016 | ||||||||
Source: The Conference Board | ||||||||
The next release is scheduled for Monday, January 22, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads") turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Indextm; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Aheadtm. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
SOURCE The Conference Board
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