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Business Leaders Hold Mixed Views on Recession Likelihood, JPMorgan Chase Survey Finds

Despite continued macroeconomic challenges, just under half of US midsize business leaders expect a recession in the second half of 2023, finds JPMorgan Chase's 2023 Midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey released today. Forty-five percent of business leaders anticipate a recession before year-end or believe the economy is already in one, down from 65% six months ago. Alternatively, 36% of respondents do not expect a recession this year, and 20% are uncertain whether one will occur.

The moderated recession fears come as the majority of business leaders remain pessimistic or neutral in their economic outlooks, though optimism for the global and national economy slightly increased from the start of 2023.

Two-thirds of respondents (67%) remain confident in their company's performance for the next year, roughly in line with sentiment from six months ago. Similarly, business expectations remain largely unchanged from the start of the year, with the majority of business leaders anticipating increased revenue or sales (59%) and profits (51%). Business leaders did project lowered expectations for hiring, with under half (42%) expecting to add headcount in the next year. The majority of business leaders (57%) expect their credit needs to remain consistent in the year ahead.

"The resilience of US consumer spending and other tailwinds has helped the economy have a stronger start to 2023 than expected, impacting business leaders' conviction of a recession occurring this year," said Ginger Chambless, Head of Research, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. "Still, businesses continue to face the persistent challenges of inflation, interest rates and labor shortages, making it critical for leaders to position their companies for stability in an uncertain economic environment by maintaining strong liquidity and adequate cash balances."

High cost constraints continue
Business leaders cite labor shortages, inflation and competition as the top external threats or risks to their companies. In particular, inflation continues to impact the bottom line and pricing decisions, even as there are signs it has recently moderated.

Innovation Economy outlook muddled amid disruption
As the Innovation Economy sector ? encompassing high-growth companies and venture-backed startups across industries ? was heavily impacted by disruption in the banking sector earlier this year, optimism dipped among its business leaders; yet, their economic forecasts remain bright compared to midsize business leaders across other industries.

Slightly more than 6 in 10 Innovation Economy business leaders (63%) report their costs of doing business have risen over the last six months. This segment is more mixed in its views on the Fed's response to the current economic landscape, with 44% calling for a pause to rate hikes and 42% believing the Fed should raise rates, even as 28% of Innovation Economy leaders cite the cost of debt as the top external threat or risk to their businesses.

"The overall confidence and continued high expectations of Innovation Economy business leaders provide strong evidence of their resiliency and entrepreneurial spirit," said Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Innovation Economy and Head of Specialized Industries, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. "Even amid unforeseen challenges in the first half of 2023, they've remained focused on tackling some of today's most pressing issues and ultimately growing their businesses during this pivotal moment."

AI business use cases are on the rise
In recent months, businesses have faced volatility not only from economic factors, but also from new and more widespread uses of emerging technologies, most notably artificial intelligence (AI). However, business leaders are split on the adoption of AI tools, such as generative AI and language processing software.

For more information on the 2023 Midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey, visit jpmorgan.com/midyear-outlook.

Survey Methodology
JPMorgan Chase's 2023 Midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey was conducted online from June 14 ? July 5, 2023, for middle market companies with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million. In total, 625 business leaders in various industries across the U.S. participated in the survey. For six-month trends, current data is compared with data collected in the fourth quarter of 2022. The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 3.9%, at a 95% confidence level. In addition, 120 companies tagged as Innovation Economy participated in the survey. For these companies, the results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 9.0%, at a 95% confidence level.

About JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading financial services firm based in the United States of America ("U.S."), with operations worldwide. JPMorgan Chase had $3.9 trillion in assets and $313 billion in stockholders' equity as of June 30, 2023. The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Under the J.P. Morgan and Chase brands, the Firm serves millions of customers in the U.S., and many of the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients globally. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorganchase.com.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Deposits held in non-U.S. branches are not FDIC insured. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.

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