Nearly 40% of U.S. Banks Have Experienced Volatility in their Performance Over the Past Year
Economic profits in 2022 increased materially vs. the prior year across publicly held banks in the US with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp, Wells Fargo & Company, and Citigroup Inc contributing more than 72% of the improvement. However, the market believes profits across the all benchmark banks will decline (67%) from current levels.
This news comes from a new comprehensive business designation study from The ROIG Group, a specialized consultancy firm. The ROIG Group examined 384 U.S.-based publicly traded banks using 2021 and 2022 year-over-year data, including net interest income and non-interest income, efficiency ratio, equity capital, the cost of equity capital, and market value amongst others. ROIG assessed both the historical and future implied performance of each bank in order to classify each bank into one of four designations/states based on the results-- Revive, Optimize, Incubate or Grow.
Only 8% of these banks were identified to be in a "Grow" state. These banks are in the best position to evaluate acquisitions, explore product or service diversification, or pursue customer, channel, or market innovation choices. The market believes these banks will be more profitable in the future than they are presently.
A key outcome of the research however showed 36% of U.S. banks do not generate profits in excess of their cost of equity capital and have earned a "Revive" designation. Revive banks need to focus on fixing what is broken - perhaps even focus on business model reinvention. They need to prune in order to invest (with prejudice!) and improve capital efficiency.
A majority of banks (56%), however, fell within the "Optimize" state. These banks are profitable but the market believes they will generate fewer profits in the future. There are many opportunities for those banks to improve the efficiency and profitability of their operations. These banks should focus on reducing their operating costs and improving their efficiency. Overall, banking optimization opportunities exist in a wide range of areas, and banks that successfully implement optimization strategies can improve their profitability, reduce costs, and enhance customer satisfaction.
Banks in the Optimize state have an opportunity for smart, calculated growth by focusing on growing sales organically and winning back their customer by fixing or enhancing their value propositions in order to make it easier to do business," said Sheree Thornsberry, Financial Services Co-Practice Lead. "These banks need to focus on improving capital efficiency and organize business structure in order to remove roadblocks, barriers and bottlenecks."
Of note for 2022: while 63% of banks were designated in the same state as 2021, 17.2% of banks upgraded their business designation (i.e., Revive to Optimize or Optimize to Grow) and 18.5% of banks were downgraded (from Grow to Optimize or Optimize to Revive). From this list, the banks to watch included the following:
Top 5 Downward Moves (from Grow to Optimize or Optimize to Revive to Optimize):
- Wells Fargo & Company
- Fifth Third Bancorp
- Discover Financial Services
- Ally Financial Inc (Downgraded 2 levels)
- SoFi Technologies Inc
Top 5 Upward Moves (from Revive to Optimize or Optimize to Grow):
- PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
- Regions Financial Corporation
- KeyCorp
- Raymond James Financial, Inc.
- BOK Financial Corporation
"The bottom line is the key to success for any of these banks, regardless of their current state, is to stay in their lane, focused on the key top line and/or bottom-line problems inherent in the bounds of Revive, Optimize and Grow," said Robert Willey, Managing Partner of The ROIG Group.
To learn more about The ROIG Group's bank designation research, download the full report here.
About the research
The ROIG Group's banking study was conducted from 2022 and 2021 annual results and examined 384 U.S.-based publicly traded banks with revenue over $25M across all U.S. regions. The banks included Commercial Mortgage Banking and Services, Other Mortgage Banking Services, Residential Mortgage Banking and Services, U.S. Commercial Banks (Midwest and West, East and South), U.S. Savings Institutions (East, South and West), and Diversified States Savings Institutions. The database is built from public financial information normalized to create a precise comparison on economic value. The analysis examined several years of company P&L, balance sheet, cash flow statements, and market value of equity as performance indicators. ROIG has been performing its proprietary designations research since 2010 across other industries including manufacturing and retail.
About The ROIG Group
The ROIG Group is a boutique consultancy firm headquartered in Minnesota, that provides value acceleration through outcome-based, solutions-centric thinking that is birthed from experience. For over twelve years, ROIG has leveraged its experienced practitioner model to couple senior-level leadership experience with deep technical and analytical skills to accelerate decision making, strategy development, innovation opportunities, and transformation for clients across numerous industries including retail, services, manufacturing, financial services, and more. ROIG has depth of experience in payments and works with companies using proprietary designation research to help bank and fintech clients win the payments race. ROIG's clients come from the public and private sectors, range from mid-size to large enterprises, and span numerous industries across the globe. For more information, visit www.theroiggroup.com or email [email protected].
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