New Data Shows Declining Housing Inventory on the Heels of Bank Collapses and Further Rate Hikes
HouseCanary, Inc. ("HouseCanary"), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, today released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between March 2022 and March 2023. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary's nationwide platform.
After a year of continuous rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the recent collapse of three banks, market activity in terms of contract volume and net new listing volume remains sharply down year-over-year. Furthermore, net new listing volume continues to lag contract volume, yielding little relief to the inventory shortage. Meanwhile, listed and closed prices have largely stabilized with prices starting to increase in many markets and total inventory being up 5.6% from the same period in 2022. This is both seasonally driven as we enter the spring buying season, as well as a result of rates slightly cooling off in recent weeks.
Entering Q2 2023, real estate market growth is dependent on whether the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates to fight inflation, as well as whether the bank collapses will have lasting impacts on consumer confidence, which could further reduce demand as would-be buyers cautiously sit on the sidelines.
Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented:
"The collapse of three banks in March coupled with additional rate hikes from the Fed could have significant implications for mortgage rates heading into the spring buying season. Our latest data indicates that one year of rate hikes has already had significant impacts on housing market activity, with both net new listing volume and contract volume sharply down year-over-year. However, prices appeared to stabilize in March and there was a rise in single-family prices across many markets, which both suggest that the market was beginning to adjust to continuous rate hikes. Consumer fears of additional issues in our financial system could have an adverse impact in the months to come."
Key Takeaways:
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For the month of March 2023, 193,286 net new listings were placed on the market, and 266,823 properties went under contract. This represents a decrease of 42.0% and 19.5%, respectively, versus March 2022.
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The decrease in net new listings was driven by a 33.1% decrease in new listing volume as well as a 56.8% increase in removals compared to March 2022.
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Median days on market stood at 37, up 54.2% from the prior year at 24 days on market. Days on the market decreased by 14.0% on a month-over-month basis.
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The sale-to-list-price ratio stands at 98.2%, which is above the lowest value observed in January 2023 and trending further upward.
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Price cuts are up 132.7% year-over-year but are down nearly 62.7% from their recent peaks occurring in September and October 2022.
- Total single-family rental inventory is up 64.7% from the same period in 2022, and up 110.5% from 2021.
About HouseCanary
Founded in 2013, national real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading services including valuations, forecasts, and transactions. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.
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