Subject: SLS
TrueCar Releases Analysis of July Industry Sales
A shift in incentives appears to be an industry response to growing affordability concerns
SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,119,712 units in July 2022, down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 15% from July 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 975,597 units, down 14% from a year ago and down 1% from June 2022.
"This month we're seeing the first response from the industry to address affordability concerns, by increasing incentives for the first time in nearly 20 months," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Even before the latest bump in federal interest rates, consumers were facing rising challenges to vehicle affordability. As rates go up, consumers are faced with increased monthly payments, even as average transaction prices remain flat."
And while inventory remains close to historically low levels, there is some emerging distinction between these levels among various OEMs.
"OEMs that have inventory and supply are weathering the drop in sales differently than the ones that don't," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "There may be long term implications for brands that are low on inventory, as those brands could lose some loyal customers."
Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for July 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for July 2022 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 7% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 54% from last year but up slightly from June 2022.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 12% from a year ago and about the same as June 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 15% from a year ago at 13 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for July 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 17% from a year ago and up 4% from June 2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% compared to June 2022 at 5.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.5%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months, both up about one month since last July.
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 29,767 | 28,845 | 28,744 | 3.2 % | 7.2 % | 3.6 % | 3.6 % |
Daimler | 31,514 | 24,977 | 32,494 | 26.2 % | 31.0 % | -3.0 % | -3.0 % |
Ford | 156,105 | 118,917 | 151,182 | 31.3 % | 36.3 % | 3.3 % | 3.3 % |
GM | 182,874 | 197,697 | 199,679 | -7.5 % | -3.9 % | -8.4 % | -8.4 % |
Honda | 68,090 | 135,542 | 71,048 | -49.8 % | -47.8 % | -4.2 % | -4.2 % |
Hyundai | 60,374 | 73,680 | 67,597 | -18.1 % | -14.9 % | -10.7 % | -10.7 % |
Kia | 61,188 | 70,099 | 65,142 | -12.7 % | -9.4 % | -6.1 % | -6.1 % |
Nissan | 51,648 | 80,456 | 55,122 | -35.8 % | -33.3 % | -6.3 % | -6.3 % |
Stellantis | 136,936 | 142,065 | 134,456 | -3.6 % | 0.1 % | 1.8 % | 1.8 % |
Subaru | 41,351 | 50,125 | 43,175 | -17.5 % | -14.3 % | -4.2 % | -4.2 % |
Tesla | 46,298 | 26,200 | 42,757 | 76.7 % | 83.5 % | 8.3 % | 8.3 % |
Toyota | 165,758 | 225,917 | 167,823 | -26.6 % | -23.8 % | -1.2 % | -1.2 % |
Volkswagen Group | 53,093 | 55,754 | 51,034 | -4.8 % | -1.1 % | 4.0 % | 4.0 % |
Industry | 1,119,712 | 1,291,775 | 1,144,772 | -13.3 % | -10.0 % | -2.2 % | -2.2 % |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 28,850 | 27,125 | 27,855 | 6.4 % | 10.5 % | 3.6 % | 3.6 % |
Daimler | 29,608 | 23,969 | 30,559 | 23.5 % | 28.3 % | -3.1 % | -3.1 % |
Ford | 117,280 | 88,396 | 113,284 | 32.7 % | 37.8 % | 3.5 % | 3.5 % |
GM | 151,946 | 172,980 | 158,839 | -12.2 % | -8.8 % | -4.3 % | -4.3 % |
Honda | 65,528 | 132,472 | 68,503 | -50.5 % | -48.6 % | -4.3 % | -4.3 % |
Hyundai | 59,775 | 69,555 | 66,897 | -14.1 % | -10.8 % | -10.6 % | -10.6 % |
Kia | 56,625 | 67,700 | 60,147 | -16.4 % | -13.1 % | -5.9 % | -5.9 % |
Nissan | 41,953 | 69,278 | 43,310 | -39.4 % | -37.1 % | -3.1 % | -3.1 % |
Stellantis | 112,485 | 127,443 | 110,028 | -11.7 % | -8.3 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % |
Subaru | 40,014 | 49,301 | 41,734 | -18.8 % | -15.7 % | -4.1 % | -4.1 % |
Tesla | 43,475 | 26,200 | 40,150 | 65.9 % | 72.3 % | 8.3 % | 8.3 % |
Toyota | 144,205 | 209,320 | 147,224 | -31.1 % | -28.5 % | -2.1 % | -2.1 % |
Volkswagen Group | 51,321 | 53,919 | 49,193 | -4.8 % | -1.2 % | 4.3 % | 4.3 % |
Industry | 975,597 | 1,176,284 | 989,504 | -17.1 % | -13.9 % | -1.4 % | -1.4 % |
Fleet Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 916 | 1,720 | 889 | -46.7 % | -44.7 % | 3.1 % | 3.1 % |
Daimler | 1,905 | 1,008 | 1,935 | 89.1 % | 96.4 % | -1.5 % | -1.5 % |
Ford | 38,825 | 30,521 | 37,898 | 27.2 % | 32.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.4 % |
GM | 30,929 | 24,717 | 40,840 | 25.1 % | 29.9 % | -24.3 % | -24.3 % |
Honda | 2,561 | 3,070 | 2,545 | -16.6 % | -13.4 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % |
Hyundai | 599 | 4,125 | 700 | -85.5 % | -84.9 % | -14.5 % | -14.5 % |
Kia | 4,563 | 2,399 | 4,995 | 90.2 % | 97.5 % | -8.6 % | -8.6 % |
Nissan | 9,695 | 11,178 | 11,812 | -13.3 % | -9.9 % | -17.9 % | -17.9 % |
Stellantis | 24,451 | 14,622 | 24,428 | 67.2 % | 73.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
Subaru | 1,338 | 824 | 1,441 | 62.2 % | 68.5 % | -7.2 % | -7.2 % |
Tesla | 2,823 | - | 2,607 | 8.3 % | 8.3 % | ||
Toyota | 21,554 | 16,597 | 20,599 | 29.9 % | 34.9 % | 4.6 % | 4.6 % |
Volkswagen Group | 1,773 | 1,835 | 1,841 | -3.4 % | 0.3 % | -3.7 % | -3.7 % |
Industry | 144,114 | 115,491 | 155,268 | 24.8 % | 29.6 % | -7.2 % | -7.2 % |
Fleet Penetration | |||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 3.1 % | 6.0 % | 3.1 % | -48.4 % | -0.5 % |
Daimler | 6.0 % | 4.0 % | 6.0 % | 49.9 % | 1.5 % |
Ford | 24.9 % | 25.7 % | 25.1 % | -3.1 % | -0.8 % |
GM | 16.9 % | 12.5 % | 20.5 % | 35.3 % | -17.3 % |
Honda | 3.8 % | 2.3 % | 3.6 % | 66.1 % | 5.0 % |
Hyundai | 1.0 % | 5.6 % | 1.0 % | -82.3 % | -4.3 % |
Kia | 7.5 % | 3.4 % | 7.7 % | 117.9 % | -2.7 % |
Nissan | 18.8 % | 13.9 % | 21.4 % | 35.1 % | -12.4 % |
Stellantis | 17.9 % | 10.3 % | 18.2 % | 73.5 % | -1.7 % |
Subaru | 3.2 % | 1.6 % | 3.3 % | 96.7 % | -3.1 % |
Tesla | 6.1 % | 0.0 % | 6.1 % | 0.0 % | |
Toyota | 13.0 % | 7.3 % | 12.3 % | 77.0 % | 5.9 % |
Volkswagen Group | 3.3 % | 3.3 % | 3.6 % | 1.4 % | -7.5 % |
Industry | 12.9 % | 8.9 % | 13.6 % | 44.0 % | -5.1 % |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual |
BMW | 2.7 % | 2.2 % | 2.5 % |
Daimler | 2.8 % | 1.9 % | 2.8 % |
Ford | 13.9 % | 9.2 % | 13.2 % |
GM | 16.3 % | 15.3 % | 17.4 % |
Honda | 6.1 % | 10.5 % | 6.2 % |
Hyundai | 5.4 % | 5.7 % | 5.9 % |
Kia | 5.5 % | 5.4 % | 5.7 % |
Nissan | 4.6 % | 6.2 % | 4.8 % |
Stellantis | 12.2 % | 11.0 % | 11.7 % |
Subaru | 3.7 % | 3.9 % | 3.8 % |
Tesla | 4.1 % | 2.0 % | 3.7 % |
Toyota | 14.8 % | 17.5 % | 14.7 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4.7 % | 4.3 % | 4.5 % |
96.9 % | 95.2 % | 97.0 % | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual |
BMW | 3.0 % | 2.3 % | 2.8 % |
Daimler | 3.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.1 % |
Ford | 12.0 % | 7.5 % | 11.4 % |
GM | 15.6 % | 14.7 % | 16.1 % |
Honda | 6.7 % | 11.3 % | 6.9 % |
Hyundai | 6.1 % | 5.9 % | 6.8 % |
Kia | 5.8 % | 5.8 % | 6.1 % |
Nissan | 4.3 % | 5.9 % | 4.4 % |
Stellantis | 11.5 % | 10.8 % | 11.1 % |
Subaru | 4.1 % | 4.2 % | 4.2 % |
Tesla | 4.5 % | 2.2 % | 4.1 % |
Toyota | 14.8 % | 17.8 % | 14.9 % |
Volkswagen Group | 5.3 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % |
96.7 % | 95.0 % | 96.8 % | |
ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $63,548 | $57,699 | $64,685 | 10.1 % | -1.8 % |
Daimler | $65,614 | $64,427 | $64,236 | 1.8 % | 2.1 % |
Ford | $53,865 | $50,566 | $52,475 | 6.5 % | 2.6 % |
GM | $51,079 | $47,939 | $50,519 | 6.6 % | 1.1 % |
Honda | $38,302 | $32,972 | $37,764 | 16.2 % | 1.4 % |
Hyundai | $36,510 | $33,369 | $37,640 | 9.4 % | -3.0 % |
Kia | $35,231 | $30,496 | $35,697 | 15.5 % | -1.3 % |
Nissan | $35,666 | $32,828 | $35,970 | 8.6 % | -0.8 % |
Stellantis | $54,402 | $49,189 | $54,066 | 10.6 % | 0.6 % |
Subaru | $34,897 | $33,767 | $35,611 | 3.3 % | -2.0 % |
Toyota | $40,970 | $37,682 | $40,765 | 8.7 % | 0.5 % |
Volkswagen Group | $44,701 | $42,447 | $45,706 | 5.3 % | -2.2 % |
Industry | $45,352 | $40,489 | $45,364 | 12.0 % | 0.0 % |
$4,863 | -$12 | ||||
Incentives | |||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $1,193 | $4,278 | $1,130 | -72.1 % | 5.6 % |
Daimler | $1,398 | $3,625 | $1,283 | -61.4 % | 9.0 % |
Ford | $1,003 | $2,417 | $1,046 | -58.5 % | -4.1 % |
GM | $1,772 | $3,345 | $1,609 | -47.0 % | 10.1 % |
Honda | $765 | $2,064 | $696 | -62.9 % | 9.9 % |
Hyundai | $452 | $1,664 | $486 | -72.8 % | -6.9 % |
Kia | $541 | $2,472 | $582 | -78.1 % | -7.0 % |
Nissan | $1,118 | $2,365 | $1,177 | -52.7 % | -5.0 % |
Stellantis | $1,909 | $2,963 | $1,895 | -35.6 % | 0.8 % |
Subaru | $701 | $1,336 | $763 | -47.5 % | -8.1 % |
Toyota | $759 | $2,005 | $753 | -62.2 % | 0.8 % |
Volkswagen Group | $1,214 | $2,902 | $1,162 | -58.2 % | 4.5 % |
Industry | $1,162 | $2,536 | $1,110 | -54.2 % | 4.7 % |
-$1,374 | $52 | ||||
Incentives as % of ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | 1.9 % | 7.4 % | 1.7 % | -74.7 % | 7.5 % |
Daimler | 2.1 % | 5.6 % | 2.0 % | -62.1 % | 6.7 % |
Ford | 1.9 % | 4.8 % | 2.0 % | -61.0 % | -6.6 % |
GM | 3.5 % | 7.0 % | 3.2 % | -50.3 % | 8.9 % |
Honda | 2.0 % | 6.3 % | 1.8 % | -68.1 % | 8.4 % |
Hyundai | 1.2 % | 5.0 % | 1.3 % | -75.2 % | -4.0 % |
Kia | 1.5 % | 8.1 % | 1.6 % | -81.1 % | -5.8 % |
Nissan | 3.1 % | 7.2 % | 3.3 % | -56.5 % | -4.2 % |
Stellantis | 3.5 % | 6.0 % | 3.5 % | -41.7 % | 0.1 % |
Subaru | 2.0 % | 4.0 % | 2.1 % | -49.2 % | -6.2 % |
Toyota | 1.9 % | 5.3 % | 1.8 % | -65.2 % | 0.3 % |
Volkswagen Group | 2.7 % | 6.8 % | 2.5 % | -60.3 % | 6.8 % |
Industry | 2.6 % | 6.3 % | 2.4 % | -59.1 % | 4.7 % |
Revenue | |||||
Manufacturer | Jul 2022 Forecast | Jul 2021 Actual | Jun 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
Industry | $50,780,980,394 | $52,302,194,540 | $51,931,220,369 | -2.9 % | -2.2 % |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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