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Subjects: NPT, ECO

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in December


NEW YORK, Jan. 21, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.8 percent in December to 120.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November and a 0.7 percent increase in October.

"The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures?as well as the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hikes?may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent?well above the pre-pandemic trend growth."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in December to 107.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.5 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in December to 109.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.4 percent increase in October.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, February 18, 2022, at 10 A.M. ET.

The January 2022 release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

 

In addition, an underlying data input for the Leading Credit Indextm (LCI), a component of the LEI, has been updated with the January 2022 benchmark revision. LCI calculations (from 1998 to 2018) use the primary dealers' overnight Treasury repo rate and (from 2018 to the present) the SOFR (90-Day Average Secured Overnight Financing Rate) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York instead of the LIBOR rate previously used. LIBOR remains in the LCI calculations prior to 1998.

 

For more information, please visit http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected]

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes





2021




6-month


Oct


Nov


Dec


Jun to Dec

















Leading Index

119.1

r

119.9


120.8

p


  Percent Change

0.7

r

0.7

r

0.8

p

4.0

  Diffusion

80


70


85


75









Coincident Index

107.1

r

107.2

r

107.4

p


  Percent Change

0.5


0.1

r

0.2

p

1.3

  Diffusion

87.5


75


75


100









Lagging Index

109.2

r

109.3

r

109.4

p


  Percent Change

0.4

r

0.1

r

0.1

p

1.6

  Diffusion

71.4


42.9


50


64.3









p  Preliminary     r  Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2016

Source:  The Conference Board

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component ? primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Indextm
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board


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