This report reviews the UK parcels market encompassing the business-to-business, business-to-consumer and consumer/small business consigned segments. Having been refined, extended and improved over the last 14 years, it is the leading survey of the UK parcels market, used by many carriers, and other parties with interests in the industry.
The report provides historical market size figures in value and volume terms from 2011-2019. The forecast (also in value and volume) runs from 2020-2024.
The publisher also carry out an in-depth analysis of the relevant drivers of industry growth - in particular the macroeconomic environment, retail sales and home shopping - setting out historical trends and available forecasts.
The competitive landscape section compares the operating models, strategies and performance of all the national parcels networks. It also evaluates new entrants to the market, such as brokers, parcel shop and locker networks and cross-border B2C specialists.
The report is intended for parcels carriers themselves, users of their services, partners, investors, banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector.
Key Topics Covered:
Contents
Parcels market
The parcels market includes next day or deferred delivery of parcels from around 0.75-40kg in weight
Key features of the market include high operational gearing, low capital intensity, scale economies arising from consolidation and low customer retention
B2B, B2C and C2X segments have converged but retain distinct characteristics
Franchised models are receding but other forms of outsourcing are widespread
The last mile for home delivery remains both a challenge and an area of innovation
Market size, growth and segmentation
Actual vs forecast
The publisher's market size estimate is based on company revenues
Non-parcel activities of the main networks have been excluded and parcels activities of other operators have been included
The market has grown strongly since 2013
Figures from Ofcom support the publisher's views of market size and growth
The B2B, B2C and C2X segments are impacted by different drivers hence have grown at different rates
The market is often segmented by speed of delivery, type of item and international/domestic delivery
Consumers are increasingly opting for premium delivery services
Growth of internet retail is supporting the shift towards more deferred/economy deliveries, although the picture is more complex
Domestic deliveries account for the majority of the market
Larger/heavier items are not compatible with highly automated parcels sortation processes
Volume trends
Price trends
Evidence supports lack of price increases
Market drivers
The main drivers of the parcels market are online shopping and the overall level of economic activity
Pricing is largely driven by competition
UK GDP growth slowed in the uncertainty around Brexit
B2B parcels has broadly tracked, but been lower than, movements in real GDP
Retail sales has continued to grow
Of the range of routes via which an online purchase can reach a consumer some, but not all, require a parcel delivery
Online retailing has grown considerably over the last decade.
Certain categories of online purchase do not lead to a parcel movement
The UK is a worldwide leader in internet shopping
International sales by UK e-retailers are growing more quickly than domestic sales
Average internet shopping transaction values have stopped falling
Rates of returns - which are not captured by e-commerce statistics - are (slowly) rising
Competitive landscape
UK parcels operators can be divided into several categories
The leading international groups have continued to gain share at the expense of UK-only players
There have been several long-term share movements over the last decade
The UK parcels market is now on the border between 'moderately concentrated' and 'competitive market'
The fastest growing companies have been the newer players, followed by DPD (and DPD Local), and Hermes
TNT and DX have seen falling revenue over the last 12 years while growth of DHL, UK Mail and Yodel has been modest
Estimated volumes by carrier
Differences in average revenue per parcel reflect carrier focus
Features of carrier business models underpin both segment focus and profitability
Revenue per depot by carrier
Revenue per employee by carrier
Tuffnells, Hermes and Amazon Logistics have business models which reflect the requirements of their respective niches
Having increased from 2011-16, margins have fallen back in the last couple of years
The overall industry picture masks some significant variations in profitability
Several of the more profitable companies have also been amongst the fastest-growing
Those with losses have specific factors explaining their performance
Carrier rankings suggest some winners - but care is needed in interpreting
Forecasts
The publisher's market forecast considers the three main segments (B2B, B2C and C2X) separately
GDP is expected to grow steadily and inflation to increase
The publisher's forecast is based on the B2B parcels segment maintaining its recent historical relationship with GDP growth
The publisher expect to see growth in retail sales continue at a similar rate
Forecasts for growth of click-and-collect
Growth in international internet retail sales is expected to continue to be faster than domestic sales
The publisher expect to see further growth in home delivery, but at a slowing rate
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