New Dædalus Issue on "Russia Beyond Putin"

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., April 4, 2017 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The long and eventful reign of Russia's President Vladimir Putin began in 2000 and is well into its second half. In October 2017, he will turn 65 and the world will witness the 100^th anniversary of the Russian Revolution that toppled tsarism and eventually swept the Bolsheviks to power.

Assuming Putin retains his leadership role for another 10 to 15 years, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences invited a group of authors with expertise in modern Russian history, politics, and society to share their views on what the future may hold for Russia and the international community once Putin steps down.

The Spring 2017 issue of Dædalus on "Russia Beyond Putin," guest edited by George W. Breslauer (University of California, Berkeley) and Timothy J. Colton (Harvard University), explores whether fundamental change in Russia would overhaul the system, or modify or improve it without transforming it. And if change does occur, will it necessarily be of the sort Western observers would approve?

"From day one, the declared priority of Russia's second president?it is no exaggeration to call it a scared priority for him?was to engineer political and social stability," writes Timothy Colton in the issue's introductory essay, "The Paradoxes of Putinism."

Putin has pursued systemic stability above all else, and with it, has achieved economic and demographic recovery. But societal growth has been juxtaposed with the state's growing rigidity and control-mindedness. Colton explores Putin's tenure through several core paradoxes, including Putin's that personal popularity has not always been matched by confidence in his policies and that Russia backs the global trend that links social and economic modernization to political democratization.

In her essay, "The Next Mr. Putin? The Question of Succession," Fiona Hill (Brookings Institution) argues that Vladimir Putin, the person and the president, is the wild card in Russian politics. Moreover, after what could be a quarter of a century in power by 2024 (either as president or prime minister), Putin's departure could be utterly destabilizing.

Russia's political problem is determining who or what replaces Putin as the fulcrum of the state system in the decade ahead. Hill examines whether "Putin's Russia"?a hyper personalized presidency supported by informal elite networks?can transform into a depersonalized system that is rooted in formal institutions with clear, predictable mechanisms to mitigate the risks of a wrenching presidential transition.

While the law is highly consequential in Russia, its use tends to be arbitrary, expedient, and instrumental, rather than predictable and principled. But Russia's legal regime is unlikely to undergo major revolutionary change and may outlive Putin's tenure. In her essay, "Putin Style 'Rule of Law' & the Prospects for Change," Maria Popova (McGill University) suggests that if positive change were to take place, Russia would inch toward authoritarian constitutionalism. But if Putin's regime weakens, the politicized use of the courts against both dissidents and political competitors within the authoritarian coalition will increase, and Russia could revert to the legal nihilism that characterized previous periods in its history.

Despite the hope of Russia evolving into a liberal democracy after the collapse of Communism and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Putin's regime, after Gorbachev and Yeltsin, came to represent a "de-democratization" or authoritarian consolidation.

A democratic breakthrough toward the rule of law is now seen as highly unlikely in the coming decade, though many proceed with guarded optimism. Excluding liberal democracy (rule of law), George Breslauer (University of California, Berkeley), in his essay "Images of the Future," presents a range of alternative futures, including the possibility of continued authoritarian constitutionalism (rule by law), patronal authoritarianism (expedient use of law), or Russite or imperial fundamentalism (legal nihilism). He concludes the issue by combining the diverse arguments presented by the authors in this volume with his own judgments and beliefs about Russia's future.

Additional essays explore the current regime's reactions to external threats; the ability of the Russian system to maintain political stability in the face of prolonged economic hardships; the prospects for state-controlled nationalism in the future; and the potential role for the siloviki?the Russian security and military personnel?in bringing about fundamental political change in Russia.

Essays in the Spring 2017 issue of Dædalus include:

• Paradoxes of Putinism by Timothy J. Colton (Harvard University)
• The Prospects for a Color Revolution in Russia by Valerie Bunce (Cornell University)
• Russian Patronal Politics Beyond Putin by Henry E. Hale (George Washington University)
• The Next Mr. Putin? The Question of Succession by Fiona Hill (Brookings Institution)
• The Russian Siloviki & Political Change by Brian D. Taylor (Syracuse University)
• Putin-Style "Rule of Law" & the Prospects for Change by Maria Popova (McGill University)
• Ideas, Ideology & Intellectuals in Search of Russia's Political Future by Elena Chebankova (University of Lincoln)
• Is Nationalism a Force for Change in Russia? by Marlene Laruelle (George Washington University)
• The Atlas That has Not Shrugged: Why Russia's Oligarchs are an Unlikely Force for Change by Stanislav Markus (University of South Carolina)
• From Boom to Bust: Hardship, Mobilization & Russia's Social Contract by Samuel A. Greene (King's College London)
• Russian Revanche: External Threats & Regime Reactions by Keith A. Darden (American University)
• Images of the Future by George W. Breslauer (University of California, Berkeley)

Print and Kindle copies of the new issue can be ordered at: http://www.amacad.org/publications/daedalus.

NOTE: Please credit Dædalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, when citing this editorial material.

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SOURCE American Academy of Arts & Sciences