Le Lézard
Subject: Economic News/Analysis

Northern Virginia Housing Market Continues to Correct Post-COVID, Faces Continued Low Housing Inventory Along with the National Housing Market

The residential and commercial real estate market has not yet reached a post-pandemic normal, according to the results of a new 2024 economic housing forecast released December 13, 2023 by the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® in conjunction with George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis.

"We are hopeful that recent spikes in mortgage rates will moderate and stabilize," said Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of NVAR. "But we expect home values to continue to increase due to historic low housing inventories."

For the first time, NVAR's Housing Forecast includes Loudoun, Stafford, and Prince William Counties along with Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax. Especially during the pandemic, the move to work-from-home rather than commuting five days a week, encouraged intraregional migration patterns to expand into more distant suburbs. As a result, more Northern Virginia Realtors® are expanding into Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties.

In addition to intraregional migration, NVAR looked at the region's overall economy. Just released inflation numbers are encouraging, and the market response to this good news was a lowering of interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes.

The economic outlook calls for increasing levels of weakness and uncertainty, and overall sales activity are expected to decline in 2024.

"In the DC region, we expect that the economy will slow through the first half of 2024, and we may even see job losses in the second half of the year, but the correction will not be deep or long enough to qualify as a regional recession," said Terry Clower, PhD, Director of GMU-CRA.

McLaughlin and Dr. Clower were two of the expert panelists featured on NVAR's virtual briefing along with Thai Hung Nguyen, 2024 President, NVAR: and Heather Embrey, 2024 Immediate Past-President, NVAR.

For a recording of the NVAR 2024 Housing Forecast and statistics and charts for each area's (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun, Stafford and Prince William) single-family, townhouse and condominium units, visit NVAR online at www.nvar.com.

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