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Subjects: SVY, ECO

Realtor.com® 2024 Housing Forecast: Housing Affordability Finally Begins to Turnaround


Buyers will finally see lower prices (-1.7%) and mortgage rates of 6.8% (on average), but may scramble to find inventory (-14%) as current owners happy with their low mortgage rates and pandemic home purchases stay put.

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Lower mortgage rates and easing prices will help spark the beginning of an affordability turnaround in 2024, according to the Realtor.com® 2024 Housing Forecast released today. But the supply of existing homes will still be tight and renting will remain a competitive option in most markets. This year's forecast also includes price and sales predictions for the top 100 U.S. metros (see table at bottom).

Overall in 2024, Realtor.com® forecasts that buyers and sellers can expect:

"Our 2024 housing forecast reveals the green shoots we've been waiting to see in the housing market and should give buyers some optimism after a grueling few years. Although mortgage rates are expected to ease throughout the course of the year, the continuation of high costs will mean that existing homeowners will continue to have a high threshold for deciding to move, but we will start to see some interest," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com®. "Moves of necessity ? for job changes, family situation changes, and downsizing to a more affordable market ? are likely to drive home sales in 2024. Home buyers will continue to seek out markets where they feel like they get the most out of their dollar as they look for homes that better meet their needs."

Key 2023 housing trends and wildcards

"Buyers and sellers who are planning to get into the market this year should be prepared. Tools like Realtor.com®'s RealCosttm rent vs. buy and affordability calculators can help buyers ensure they are making a sound financial decision based on current interest rates and their personal financial situation. Sellers can use the RealValuetm tools in Realtor.com®'s My Home to understand what their proceeds from a sale could be, and plug this data into our mortgage payment calculator with current interest rates to understand exactly how much they would pay each month with a new home purchase. Additionally, everyone can see what our projections mean for home prices around the country by checking out the forecast layer in our RealViewtm mapping tool," Hale added.

Realtor.com®'s RealViewtm mapping tool now shows 2024 forecasted home price data by ZIP code right on the map. To view this information, simply start a search on Realtor.com® and select the map view to start filtering. Then, select the Forecast map layer to see predicted average home prices in your ZIP codes of interest. This feature is included for the top 100 largest U.S. metros and is available on the Realtor.com® Mweb and desktop.

For more information about the Realtor.com®'s 2024 housing forecast, visit: realtor.com/housing-forecast-2024

Local Market Predictions ? 100 Largest U.S. Metros (in alphabetical order)

Metro

2024 Sales
Growth % y/y

2024 Price
Growth % y/y

Akron, Ohio

3.2 %

3.2 %

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.

1.1 %

3.7 %

Albuquerque, N.M.

-4.1 %

5.2 %

Allentown-Bethlehem et al, Pa.-N.J.

2.2 %

5.0 %

Atlanta-Sandy Springs et al, Ga.

-15.8 %

0.4 %

Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.

5.8 %

1.8 %

Austin-Round Rock, Texas

-11.7 %

-12.2 %

Bakersfield, Calif.

13.4 %

2.3 %

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

-3.1 %

4.6 %

Baton Rouge, La.

-20.4 %

-5.6 %

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

-4.9 %

-1.5 %

Boise City, Idaho

-3.2 %

-3.4 %

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Ma.-N.H.

-0.6 %

-0.6 %

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.

-1.3 %

7.2 %

Buffalo-Cheektowaga et al, N.Y.

8.3 %

3.9 %

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

-3.7 %

-2.9 %

Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.

-13.2 %

3.7 %

Charlotte-Concord et al, N.C.-S.C.

-22.4 %

-0.9 %

Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.

-3.6 %

2.0 %

Chicago et al, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

-9.2 %

1.1 %

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

-3.9 %

4.1 %

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

-1.2 %

2.8 %

Colorado Springs, Colo.

-11.5 %

-1.7 %

Columbia, S.C.

-12.3 %

-1.8 %

Columbus, Ohio

-1.7 %

2.2 %

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

-12.9 %

-8.4 %

Dayton-Kettering, Ohio

-2.9 %

4.8 %

Deltona-Daytona Beach et al, Fla.

-3.7 %

-3.1 %

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

-15.3 %

-5.1 %

Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa

-5.6 %

9.9 %

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.

-6.7 %

10.9 %

Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.

-1.5 %

5.8 %

El Paso, Texas

6.3 %

4.6 %

Fresno, Calif.

-6.0 %

-0.3 %

Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.

6.1 %

7.2 %

Greensboro-High Point, N.C.

-1.2 %

3.3 %

Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.

-12.4 %

1.0 %

Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.

5.6 %

5.1 %

Hartford-West Hartford et al, Conn.

3.1 %

9.1 %

Houston-The Woodlands et al, Texas

-9.7 %

-4.5 %

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

-7.6 %

6.1 %

Jacksonville, Fla.

-5.8 %

-0.5 %

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

5.4 %

-1.2 %

Knoxville, Tenn.

-5.9 %

7.2 %

Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.

2.9 %

-3.5 %

Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.

1.2 %

6.2 %

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

11.1 %

-2.3 %

Little Rock et al, Ark.

0.4 %

3.1 %

Los Angeles-Long Beach et al, Calif.

9.2 %

3.5 %

Louisville et al, Ky.-Ind.

9.1 %

1.2 %

Madison, Wis.

3.9 %

-1.5 %

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas

-0.6 %

1.6 %

Memphis, Tenn.-Ms.-Ark.

-10.8 %

-4.1 %

Miami-Fort Lauderdale et al, Fla.

3.8 %

5.0 %

Milwaukee-Waukesha et al, Wis.

0.2 %

1.1 %

Minneapolis et al, Minn.-Wis.

-2.4 %

-0.9 %

Nashville-Davidson et al, Tenn.

-11.4 %

-4.8 %

New Haven-Milford, Conn.

3.5 %

3.5 %

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

-1.1 %

3.1 %

New York-Newark et al, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa

-10.8 %

3.0 %

North Port-Sarasota et al, Fla.

1.3 %

-4.9 %

Ogden-Clearfield, Utah

-15.1 %

-3.8 %

Oklahoma City, Okla.

1.9 %

1.6 %

Omaha-Council Bluffs, Ne.-Iowa.

1.1 %

4.5 %

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

3.7 %

2.2 %

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.

18.0 %

3.3 %

Palm Bay-Melbourne et al, Fla.

-6.1 %

2.3 %

Philadelphia et al, Pa.-N.J.-De.-Md.

-13.4 %

3.8 %

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.

4.4 %

-4.3 %

Pittsburgh, Pa.

-8.5 %

6.9 %

Portland-South Portland, Me.

8.0 %

-1.9 %

Portland-Vancouver et al, Ore.-Wash

-25.6 %

-7.4 %

Providence-Warwick, R.I-Ma

3.9 %

3.1 %

Raleigh, N.C.

-17.0 %

3.6 %

Richmond, Va.

-11.6 %

3.3 %

Riverside et al, Calif.

13.8 %

2.0 %

Rochester, N.Y.

6.2 %

10.4 %

Sacramento--Roseville et al, Calif.

10.3 %

-1.3 %

Salt Lake City, Utah

-10.2 %

-4.1 %

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

-10.1 %

-9.4 %

San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.

11.0 %

5.4 %

San Francisco-Oakland et al, Calif.

-0.8 %

-5.2 %

San Jose-Sunnyvale et al, Calif.

-18.5 %

3.1 %

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre et al, Pa.

5.5 %

6.3 %

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

3.9 %

-1.0 %

Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.

3.6 %

-10.2 %

Springfield, Mass.

10.5 %

4.2 %

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.

-2.3 %

-11.7 %

Stockton-Lodi, Calif.

-5.8 %

-3.7 %

Syracuse, N.Y.

3.4 %

6.4 %

Tampa-St. Petersburg et al, Fla.

-5.3 %

1.2 %

Toledo, Ohio

14.0 %

8.3 %

Tucson, Ariz.

2.3 %

-1.8 %

Tulsa, Okla.

-1.4 %

2.8 %

Urban Honolulu, Hawaii

-8.9 %

-1.9 %

Virginia Beach et al, Va.-N.C.

0.3 %

5.3 %

Washington et al, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V.

-0.8 %

2.6 %

Wichita, Kas.

-6.2 %

2.3 %

Winston-Salem, N.C.

-8.0 %

0.3 %

Worcester, Mass.-Conn.

9.1 %

4.8 %


Methodology
Realtor.com®'s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables in the year ahead. 

About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.

Media contact: press@realtor.com

 

SOURCE Realtor.com


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