TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index: IMX Score Trends Lower in February

The Investor Movement Index^® (IMX^SM) decreased to 6.79 in February, down from 7.07 in January. The IMX is TD Ameritrade's proprietary, behavior-based index, aggregating Main Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors actually were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.

The reading for the four-week period ending February 25, 2022 ranks "Moderate" compared to historic averages.

"While the month started with strong equity demand, the swift rise of geopolitical concerns, combined with inflation numbers pushing higher and continued uncertainty on the cadence of Fed rate raising that emerged at the end of the period led many retail investors to sell equities and move into safe haven assets," according to JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist, TD Ameritrade. "While this selling did push the IMX score lower this month, our clients were net buyers in February, using the pullback as an opportunity to move toward more ?traditional' names and add to positions that they felt could weather uncertainty well."

February started with some relative strength for equities after the significant drop across all major indices in January. The much-anticipated monthly employment report seemed to provide confirmation that the Federal Reserve could move full-steam-ahead with its interest rate hiking cycle. But while the markets' initial focus was primarily on the looming policy shift from the Fed, attention quickly turned to the escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine. As investors came to realize that this confrontation would escalate far beyond the scale of the 2014 Crimea incursion, markets quickly repriced, with pronounced moves in commodities across the board as well as energy, metals, and agriculture products. The surge in inflation expectations along with the potential for lowered growth expectations led to markets pricing in the potential for a stagflationary environment. After the Fed-induced pullback in January, the added geopolitical concerns sent the S&P 500 into correction territory (defined as a 10% fall from its recent peak) for the first time since February 2020.

Despite elevated selling toward the end of the month, TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers of equities in February. Some of the popular equity names bought during the period were:

• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
• Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
• Apple Inc. (AAPL)
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
• Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

As commodity prices surged during the month, so did selling pressure across various industries. Names sold during the period included:

• Carnival Corporation (CCL)
• Walmart Inc. (WMT)
• Boeing Company (BA)
• General Electric Company (GE)
• Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

About the IMX

The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of funded accounts, which includes all accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.

For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data going back to January 2010; to view the full report from February 2022, or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the thinkorswim^® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold. All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.

Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.

About TD Ameritrade

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