Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) releases commentary on the drivers of Medicaid enrollment, noting that trends during the COVID-19 recession are likely to differ from those of previous recessions.
In contrast to the Great Recession, COVID-related shutdowns caused a sudden spike in the national unemployment rate, followed by an equally sharp, albeit partial jobs recovery. Fewer people suffered an immediate loss of employer sponsored health insurance than during the initial months of the Great Recession.
Yet, despite a significant decline in the national unemployment rate in recent months, Medicaid enrollment increased sharply from April to September. As the crisis continues and temporary layoffs increasingly give way to permanent job losses, particularly among low-income workers, the number of Medicaid beneficiaries is expected to surge.
Federal and state programs have facilitated Medicaid enrollment in both ACA expansion and non-expansion states, resulting in increased expenditures by both states and the federal government. Despite such efforts, however, workers in expansion states may fall outside of the ACA umbrella upon the expiration of their unemployment insurance benefits, and some workers in non-expansion states may fall into a coverage gap. Moreover, there is the potential for the repeal of the ACA in its entirety. Any of these possible outcomes would add to states' budgetary challenges, with varying impact to individual states.
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About KBRA and KBRA Europe
KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and is a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is registered with ESMA as a CRA. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is located at 6-8 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.
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