DENVER, March 16, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- According to new surveys from ROI Rocket, a leading providing of market research-based consulting, former vice president Joe Biden is poised to win the three largest states holding primaries tomorrow by substantial margins. These polls project Biden will outperform Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont) by about 67% to 27% in Florida, 61% to 33% in Ohio and 57% to 34% in Illinois. The estimated margins of victory in these races are well above the error rates associated with the results, though potential responses to the coronavirus epidemic may impact these numbers, particularly if older voters stay home in large numbers.
After breaking out of the pack on Super Tuesday, Biden has only increased his delegate lead, winning five out of six contests in last week's primaries. The situation has left many Sanders supporters wondering where to throw their support. At present, across Florida, Ohio and Illinois, about 22% of Sanders supporters say they're likely to vote for someone other than Biden or decline to vote altogether.
At the same time, support for Biden continues to be decidedly lackluster. There's comparatively little enthusiasm for the candidate and he's yet to make a strong emotional connection with many Democratic primary voters. Taken together, disaffection among Sanders supporters and broad but shallow support for Biden cast serious doubt on the Democratic Party's chances of taking the White House in November.
Florida: Only about 61% of Biden's supporters are enthusiastic while just 53% feel an emotional connection. About 21% of Sanders supporters say they won't vote for Biden in November?6% say they'll vote for Trump, 8% for a third party and 7% will stay home.
Ohio: Only 48% of Biden's supporters are enthusiastic and about two-in-five (40%) feel an emotional connection. As for Sanders supporters, about 28% say they won't vote for Biden in November, 6% say they'll vote for Trump, 14% for a third party and 8% will stay home.
Illinois: Significantly less than half of Biden voters (about 41%) are enthusiastic supporters and only 39% feel an emotional connection. If Biden is the nominee, about 7% of Sanders supporters say they'll vote for Trump, 11% for a third party and 5% won't vote at all.
ABOUT THIS RESEARCH
This research was fielded from March 6 ? 12, 2020. To qualify for this study, respondents were required to be registered voters likely to vote in the 2020 presidential election. Sample collection was balanced to state-specific U.S. Census numbers for gender, age, ethnicity and urban/suburban/rural residency. In addition, we also established minimum quotas based on party identification to ensure reliable sub-group analyses.
In addition, appropriate weights have been applied based on U.S. Census figures for state population, gender and age, along with party membership.
Discrete sample samples and associated margins of error are noted below. All margins of error have been calculated at the 95% confidence level in the most conservative case.
Florida sample (closed primary, Democrats only):
n=877 (MoE: +/- 3.3%)
Illinois sample (open primary, Democrats and Independents):
n=960 (MoE: +/- 3.1%)
Ohio sample (open primary, Democrats and Independents):
n=880 (MoE: +/- 3.3%)
ABOUT ROI ROCKET
Founded in 2007, ROI Rocket is a leading provider of full-service market research, marketing and sales automation, and digital agency support with offices in Denver, CO, Vancouver, WA and Jacksonville, FL.
SOURCE ROI Rocket
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