The Spark to Ignite a Major Conflagration & Global Economic Uncertainty: Stratfor Releases its 2020 Annual Forecast

AUSTIN, Texas, Jan. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Stratfor, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, identifies the core trends and constraints that will shape global developments in its 2020 Annual Forecast, now available on Stratfor Worldview.

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran will exacerbate global geopolitical instability in 2020.

"The risk that Iraqi militias backed by Iran would attack U.S. and Western forces, assets and, potentially, commercial interests was already high, but it's just increased precipitously," says Stratfor's Middle East and North Africa analyst, Emily Hawthorne.

Risks for retaliation are highest in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, and could include bombings, rocket attacks, sabotage incidents or even cyber-attacks. 

Iran's initial actions likely will be against U.S. military personnel or bases, but could potentially impact civilians, air traffic and shipping lanes.

If retaliatory strikes are localized, this should limit upside on oil in the very short-term; however if things escalate, the full spectrum of Iranian capabilities could come into play. Iran has proven its ability to hold the most important Saudi and Emirati facilities at risk.

This escalation will add to U.S. election year uncertainty, which will drive global economic, military, security and geopolitical realignments. "Rogue" nations such as North Korea, and non-state actors including the Taliban and the Islamic State, will assess ways in which they might leverage their behavior to exploit perceived weaknesses in U.S. foreign policy, while also calculating the risks or benefits in making deals with the Trump administration, or waiting for a possible change in U.S. leadership.

Other key geopolitical trends highlighted in Stratfor's 2020 Annual Forecast include:

• Trump's trade offensive continues: China, the EU and the WTO all targeted;
• Overall technology competition between and among the United States, Russia, China and Europe will fray supply chains and make 5 G rollout more expensive;
• The U.S. and the EU will keep a wary eye on Turkey, where domestic politics could drive risky foreign policy moves.

The complete 2020 Annual Forecast is now available on Worldview.Stratfor.com.

Stratfor's 2019 Annual Forecast successfully anticipated that temporary trade deals between the U.S. and China would not solve fundamental frictions; increasing defense ties between Russia and China and deeper cooperation between the US and India in response to China's growing influence.

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SOURCE Stratfor