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Anti-Immigrant Platform Lost in the 2018 Races That Decided the House


NEW YORK, Nov. 12, 2018 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- While many candidates in competitive House races doubled down on harsh immigration rhetoric -- five times as many immigration ads ran this cycle than ran four years ago -- the anti-immigrant strategy proved to be a losing bet in many of the districts that decided the House, according to new research and data from New American Economy, a bipartisan immigration advocacy group. Candidates who might have won in the past by courting their base with anti-immigrant rhetoric faced a new and increasingly diverse electorate that had experienced large demographic changes even in just the last two years.

Here are some of the key takeaways from Tuesday night:

In these increasingly diverse districts, the most strident anti-immigrant politicians lost and anti-immigrant arguments fell flat:

Pro-immigrant arguments won Tuesday night, even in very red districts:

Other races that flipped Tuesday night tell a similar story:

IA-1: In this district, the share of white voters has declined by 0.7% since 2016 while the number of Hispanic and Asian American voters grew by 0.2% or 1,400 voters. Republican incumbent Rod Blum ran anti-immigrant ads marked by photos of Hispanic men with tattoos and claims of "criminal illegal aliens on our streets". Outside groups supported him with ads about illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, and more crime. Blum lost his reelection to Democrat Abby Finkenauer.

IA-3: In this Republican-leaning district, incumbent Republican Rep. David Young ran ads warning about sanctuary cities. Outside groups joined in with ads about open borders, crime, and drugs. But Young's district had added more than 3,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters since 2016. Young lost.

AZ-1: In Arizona, Republican Wendy Rogers ran ads calling her state "ground zero in the illegal alien invasion". But since 2016, this Republican-leaning (R+2) district had added more than 16,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters. Rogers lost to Democrat Tom O'Halleran.

IL-6: This district added more than 6,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters since 2016, making this historically Republican district (it is R+2 and it hasn't had Democratic representation in 46 years) competitive for the first time in years. This cycle, Democratic challenger Sean Casten ran pro-immigration ads focused on Dreamers and was able to knock off incumbent Republican Pete Roskam:

OK-5: This Republican-leaning (R+10) district added more than 6,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters and lost more than 2,050 white voters, all since 2016. Republican incumbent Steve Russell ran ads warning of migrant caravans to support his reelection. Russell lost to Democratic challenger Kendra Horn.

PA-8: This newly redrawn, Republican-leaning district includes parts of two fast changing counties: Bucks County, where the foreign-born population increased by 33% between 2010 and 2016, and Montgomery County, where the foreign-born population increased by 9% during that time. Republican challenger John Chrin attacked incumbent Matt Cartwright with ads about a 5-year old girl "raped by an illegal given sanctuary," and he lost by more than 20,000 votes.

NJ-5: Since 2016 this Republican-leaning (R+3) district has added more than 6,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters and lost more than 2,000 white voters. Republican challenger John McCann attacked incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer with ads about illegal immigrant child predators, but fell more than 30,000 votes short.

KS-3: Over the last two years, this district has added more than 5,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters and lost more than 7,500 white voters. This Republican-leaning district (R+4) was represented by incumbent Kevin Yoder, whose reelection campaign was backed by outside ads focusing on how undocumented immigrants put families at risk and attacking open borders and amnesty. By contrast, Democratic challenger Sharice Davids, ran ads calling for bipartisan immigration reform and a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers. She was also backed by outside ads in support of Dreamers and keeping families together. Yoder lost.

AZ-2: This Republican-leaning district added than 9,000 additional Hispanic and Asian American voters over the last two years, while the white vote fell by more than 2,000 over that time. Republican Lea Marquez Peterson ran ads on sanctuary cities and claimed her opponent wanted to give free healthcare to illegal immigrants. She lost to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick.

SC-1: In this Republican (R+10) district, Republican Katie Arrington focused heavily on immigration, running ads about a MS-13 "caravan of illegal immigrants marching on our border" The district added almost 3,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters since 2016 alone, and Arrington lost to Democrat Joe Cunningham in a district Republicans had held for 37 years.

VA 2: This Republican-leaning (R+3) district added more than 3,000 additional Hispanic and Asian American voters since 2016, while the share of the white vote declined by 0.9% over those two years. Republican incumbent Scott Taylor was boosted by outside ads from the NRCC accusing his opponent Elaine Luria of being in favor of amnesty. Taylor lost.

NY-22: This Republican (R+6) district has added more than 4,000 Hispanic and Asian American voters since 2016, and lost more than 5,000 white voters during that time. Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney ran ads slamming her opponent Democrat Anthony Brindisi for voting for in state tuition for undocumented immigrants. Brindisi won.

*The 27 races that have been called so are: AZ-2, CO-6, IA-1, IA-3, IL-6, IL-14, FL-26, FL-27, KS-3, MI-8, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, NJ-2, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-11, NY-19 PA-6, PA-7, PA-17, SC-1, TX-7, TX-32, VA-2, VA-7, VA-10

About New American Economy
New American Economy (NAE) brings together more than 500 Republican, Democratic and Independent mayors and business leaders who support immigration reforms that will help create jobs for Americans today. Coalition members include mayors of more than 35 million people nationwide and business leaders of companies that generate more than $1.5 trillion and employ more than 4 million people across all sectors of the economy, from Agriculture to Aerospace, Hospitality to High Tech and Media to Manufacturing. Learn more at http://www.newamericaneconomy.org.

 

SOURCE New American Economy


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