Texas and Florida Snag 70% of the Top 50 Master Plans in 2023; the Southwest Cools

Florida remains the frontrunner in the Top 50 Master-Planned Communities, with an impressive 40% of the combined new home sales.

IRVINE, Calif., Feb. 13, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) have released their Top 50 Master-Planned Communities of 2023, which enjoyed strong new home sales despite economic uncertainty and high interest rates. JBREC surveyed over 500 communities to compile this year's ranking. Click here to see their top 50 MPC list for 2023.

Geographic shifts have emerged among the top-selling master-planned communities (MPCs). Florida MPCs account for 40% of new home sales in the top 50 list. Texas followed closely with 34% of top-selling communities, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. The Southwest and Southern California regions saw a stabilization in their share of sales, capturing 12% and 6%, respectively.

Three big trends are contributing to the regional shifts:

• Stretched affordability
• Differing new home sales recovery from the 2022 decline
• Master plans building to completion or running low on lots

Stretched affordability

Measured by housing-cost-to-income ratios, affordability has weakened in many Sunbelt markets since 2019, when a pre-Covid immigration wave was underway. Rapid mortgage rate increases in 2022 and the first half of 2023 drove monthly mortgage payments even higher, worsening affordability and stalling new home sales. Major Southwest metros have been hit hard, with residents spending over 40% of their household income on housing.

Differing sales recoveries

Conditions varied significantly by region in 2023, impacting new home sales in master plans. As mortgage rates spiked in late 2022, many home builders saw sales slump and prices weaken. Even as rates peaked at 8% in October 2023, the regions were experiencing markedly different sales recoveries.

Texas' new home market recovery was bifurcated between the slower Austin and San Antonio markets and the stronger Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston markets. Southwest builders struggled with a slower recovery. Affordability concerns and slowing migration trends challenged Southwest builders to find the market pricing that would boost sales rates into a normal range by year-end.

Shrinking lot availability

Several long-term top 50 master plans dropped in the ranking or out of the top 50 altogether. JBREC consultants confirm that many of these master plans have built out or are close to running out of lots to support new home sales.

• Seven Phoenix master plans made the top 50 list in 2019 compared to only Bella Vista Farms (#38) in 2023.
• Several large Florida master plans reported fewer new home sales in 2023, as elevated new home prices deter local buyers (though appeal to well-off new arrivals).

About John Burns Research and Consulting

John Burns Research and Consulting is a leading provider of research and consulting services for the US housing industry. With over 20 years of experience, the company provides in-depth research and analysis on trends, market conditions, and consumer preferences across four major areas: residential for sale, residential for rent, building products, and consumer and design trends.

The company's clients include some of the largest home builders, lenders, and investors in the US. Visit www.jbrec.com.

Contact:

Richard Mones [email protected] (949) 870-1222
9140 Irvine Center Drive, Suite 200, Irvine, CA 92618

SOURCE John Burns Research and Consulting