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NMI® at 58.5%; August Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®


Business Activity Index at 60.7%; New Orders Index at 60.4%; Employment Index at 56.7%

TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 6, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 103rd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 58.5 percent, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 60.7 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the July reading of 56.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 109th consecutive month, at a faster rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 57 percent in July. The Employment Index increased 0.6 percentage point in August to 56.7 percent from the July reading of 56.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 0.6 percentage point from the July reading of 63.4 percent to 62.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in August for the 30th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There was a strong rebound for the non-manufacturing sector in August after growth 'cooled off' in July. Logistics, tariffs and employment resources continue to have an impact on many of the respective industries. Overall, the respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in August ? listed in order ? are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

 

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
AUGUST 2018

 

Index

Non-Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Series
Index

Aug

Series
Index

Jul

Percent Point
Change

 

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend**

(Months)

Series
Index

Aug

Series
Index

Jul

Percent Point
Change

NMI®/PMI®

58.5

55.7

+2.8

Growing

Faster

103

61.3

58.1

+3.2

Business Activity/Production

60.7

56.5

+4.2

Growing

Faster

109

63.3

58.5

+4.8

New Orders

60.4

57.0

+3.4

Growing

Faster

91

65.1

60.2

+4.9

Employment

56.7

56.1

+0.6

Growing

Faster

54

58.5

56.5

+2.0

Supplier Deliveries

56.0

53.0

+3.0

Slowing

Faster

32

64.5

62.1

+2.4

Inventories

53.5

53.5

0.0

Growing

Same

7

55.4

53.3

+2.1

Prices

62.8

63.4

-0.6

Increasing

Slower

30

72.1

73.2

-1.1

Backlog of Orders

56.5

51.5

+5.0

Growing

Faster

8

57.5

54.7

+2.8

New Export Orders

60.5

58.0

+2.5

Growing

Faster

19

55.2

55.3

-0.1

Imports

52.0

52.5

-0.5

Growing

Slower

6

53.9

54.7

-0.8

Inventory Sentiment

59.5

58.0

+1.5

Too High

Faster

255

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers' Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

41.0

39.4

+1.6











Overall Economy

Non-Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Growing

Faster

Faster

108

103







*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (5); Aluminum Products (2); Diesel* (5); Fittings; Freight; Fuel (5); Logistics Services; Packaging; Paper and Printing; Paper Products; Pharmaceuticals (2); Polypropylene; Professional Services; Steel (5); Steel Products (11); and Transportation and Trucking Services (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Diesel*; and Lumber Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Construction Subcontractors (8); IV Solutions; Labor ? Construction (29); Medical Supplies; and Transportation and Trucking Services.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

AUGUST 2018 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI®
In August, the NMI® registered 58.5 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the 55.7 percent registered in July, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 103rd consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 49 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August NMI® indicates growth for the 108th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 103rd consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for August (58.5 percent) corresponds to a 3.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

NMI® HISTORY

Month

NMI®

Month

NMI®

Aug 2018

58.5

Feb 2018

59.5

Jul 2018

55.7

Jan 2018

59.9

Jun 2018

59.1

Dec 2017

56.0

May 2018

58.6

Nov 2017

57.3

Apr 2018

56.8

Oct 2017

59.8

Mar 2018

58.8

Sep 2017

59.4

Average for 12 months ? 58.3

High ? 59.9

Low ? 55.7

Business Activity
ISM®'s Business Activity Index registered 60.7 percent in August, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the July reading of 56.5 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 109th consecutive month. Fourteen industries reported increased business activity, and two industries reported decreased activity for the month of August. Comments from respondents include: "Increased conversions of quotes to orders" and "Lower census volumes. Surgeons on vacation, resulting in fewer cases."

The 14 industries reporting growth of business activity in August ? listed in order ? are: Educational Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a decrease in business activity in August are: Mining; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

32

57

11

60.7

Jul 2018

32

52

16

56.5

Jun 2018

40

49

11

63.9

May 2018

35

55

10

61.3

New Orders
ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the July reading of 57 percent. New orders grew in August for the 91st consecutive month, at a faster rate compared with July. Comments from respondents include: "Our clients are feeling strongly about the current macroeconomics" and "Fiscal year end is approaching. Funds must be spent or lost."

The 16 industries reporting growth of new orders in August ? listed in order ? are: Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Mining. The only industry reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of August is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

32

57

11

60.4

Jul 2018

32

53

15

57.0

Jun 2018

40

51

9

63.2

May 2018

33

57

10

60.5

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 54th consecutive month. ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 56.7 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the July reading of 56.1 percent. Twelve industries reported increased employment, and four industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Employee retention is getting much more challenging" and "Losing people to attrition [and] having trouble replacing [them] in the current market."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in employment in August ? listed in order ? are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Utilities; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting a reduction in employment in August are: Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

22

67

11

56.7

Jul 2018

28

60

12

56.1

Jun 2018

29

58

13

53.6

May 2018

26

60

14

54.1

Supplier Deliveries
Supplier deliveries were slower in August for the 32nd consecutive month. The index registered 56 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 53 percent registered in July. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at a faster rate in August. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Labor shortage issues on the supplier side" and "Delays in traffic; less drivers."

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in August ? listed in order ? are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting faster deliveries in August are: Finance & Insurance; and Other Services. Seven industries reported no change in August.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Aug 2018

16

80

4

56.0

Jul 2018

10

86

4

53.0

Jun 2018

14

83

3

55.5

May 2018

18

81

1

58.5

Inventories
ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in August for the seventh consecutive month, registering 53.5 percent, which is the same figure that was reported in June and July. Of the total respondents in August, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Increased activity; stock levels rising to accommodate" and "Due to the widespread back-order issues of needles and syringes, we have increased safety stock."

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in August ? listed in order ? are: Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Public Administration.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

23

61

16

53.5

Jul 2018

22

63

15

53.5

Jun 2018

23

61

16

53.5

May 2018

29

57

14

57.5

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in August for the 30th consecutive month. ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 62.8 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 63.4 percent reported in July. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported higher prices, 66 percent indicated no change in prices paid and 6 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

The 12 non-manufacturing industries reporting an increase in prices paid during the month of August ? listed in order ? are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting lower prices in August compared to July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Other Services.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

28

66

6

62.8

Jul 2018

32

65

3

63.4

Jun 2018

29

67

4

60.7

May 2018

41

54

5

64.3

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders grew in August. The index registered 56.5 percent, which is 5 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 40 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 14 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in August ? listed in order ? are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. No industry reported a decrease in back-orders in August.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

23

67

10

56.5

Jul 2018

14

75

11

51.5

Jun 2018

19

75

6

56.5

May 2018

28

65

7

60.5

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 19th consecutive month, at a faster rate in August. The New Export Orders Index registered 60.5 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the 58 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 65 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The nine industries reporting an increase in new export orders in August ? listed in order ? are: Construction; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported a decrease in exports for the month of August. Eight industries reported no change in August.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

25

71

4

60.5

Jul 2018

23

70

7

58.0

Jun 2018

24

73

3

60.5

May 2018

18

79

3

57.5

Imports
The Imports Index reading of 52 percent is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 52.5 percent reported in July. Fifty-five percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of August are: Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Retail Trade. Nine industries reported no change in imports in August compared to July.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Aug 2018

11

82

7

52.0

Jul 2018

14

77

9

52.5

Jun 2018

12

79

9

51.5

May 2018

13

82

5

54.0

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in August registered 59.5 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 58 percent that was reported in July. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high at this time. In August, 23 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 4 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 73 percent said their inventories were about right.

The 12 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too high in August ? listed in order ? are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Information; Construction; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. The only industry reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in August compared with July is Other Services.

Inventory Sentiment

%Too

High

%About
Right

%Too

Low

Index

Aug 2018

23

73

4

59.5

Jul 2018

22

72

6

58.0

Jun 2018

20

75

5

57.5

May 2018

25

72

3

61.0

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2018.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI® above 49 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® ("ISM") Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including, but not limited to: tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 W. Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, AZ 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]; subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the September 2018 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 3, 2018.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill


Report On Business® Analyst


ISM®, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona


+1 480.455.5910


Email: [email protected]





Institute for Supply Management logo. (PRNewsFoto/Institute for Supply Management)

 

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management


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