Takeda's Entyvio Defends Share Against Janssen's Stelara in the Crohn's Disease Market, and Pressure in the Ulcerative Colitis Market May Heat Up in Early 2018 if Pfizer's Xeljanz Secures an FDA Win

EXTON, Pa., Nov. 21, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- A survey of over 100 US gastroenterologists fielded in late October 2017 indicates that, in both the ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD) markets, the established TNF inhibitors, Remicade and AbbVie's Humira, persistently dominate biologic market share.  Alternative mechanism of action (MOA) biologics, Entyvio and Stelara, continue to make in-roads and, in Crohn's Disease, these two agents compete heavily for TNF failures, which represent a sizeable portion of the market.

Stelara, which was approved for CD in September 2016, has seen a successive rise in adoption over consecutive quarters with the user base increasing from 45% in Q1 2017 to 68% presently.  While this still lags the user base of Entyvio, which is on par with established TNF agents, projected Stelara use suggests a closing of the gap within the next quarter.  Indeed, Stelara share projections in CD point to a significant increase in the next three months, while share estimates for most other agents will remain flat.

In UC, where Stelara is not indicated for use, Entyvio holds a strong position.  Indeed, if limited to only two biologics to treat UC, Entyvio is chosen by 75% of the surveyed gastroenterologists.  Nearly two-thirds indicate that they have recently increased their use of Entyvio, and a similar percent anticipate that this growth will continue in the near term, resulting in a significant share increase in the UC market.  The bulk of the losses will come from Remicade.

The future battle for patient share is going to become more complicated in 2018 with the expected approval and launch of Pfizer's Xeljanz in UC, the first oral JAK inhibitor which has shown comparable efficacy to biologics.  When presented with seven late-stage pipeline products in IBD, respondents are fairly evenly divided in preference for Celgene's mongersen (which recently had development discontinued in CD), a subcutaneous (SC) formulation for Entyvio, Xeljanz in UC, and Stelara in UC.  There was lower preference for Celgene's ozanimod, Roche/Genentech's etrolizumab, and AbbVie's upadacitinib, potentially due to the earlier stages of development.  While new and novel entrants are expected to present the greatest challenge to alternative mechanism agents, feedback from this survey indicates that the SC line extension for Takeda's Entyvio could secure a share boost of 50% or more in both the UC and CD settings.

RealTime Dynamixtm: Inflammatory Bowel Disease is an independent report series published on a quarterly basis. The series provides a close-quarters analysis of key performance metrics, focusing on brand gains and losses, industry contact rates, familiarity and adoption rates of recently launched products and awareness of products in development.

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