LONDON, September 22, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --
PA Consulting Group's annual forecast of car manufacturers' performance against mandatory EU CO? emissions targets suggests that Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot Citroen including Opel/Vauxhall and Hyundai-Kia will miss their 2021 targets, leaving them facing fines into the billions.
Car manufacturers face the reinvention of their industry as they need to reduce CO? emissions to meet the EU's fast approaching 2021 target. There have been a recent swathe of government announcements of plans to ban internal combustion engines, as early as 2025 in Norway and the Netherlands, and by 2040 in the UK and France. A similar ban is on the agenda in Germany and China.
PA's 2017 ranking analysis shows that only four out of 11 carmakers are forecast to meet the EU 2021 CO2 emission target, with the rest facing significant fines. The majority of carmakers will face penalties of ?95 for every gram of CO? above the limit, multiplied by the number of cars they sell in 2020. These fines could reach or rise above the ?1bn mark for carmakers.
At the current rate, VW is expected to face the biggest fine of ?1.7bn, followed by Fiat Chrysler with ?1.2bn. The biggest fall from grace is Peugeot Citroen, who was set to meet EU emissions targets, but turn red this year, following the merger with Opel and Vauxhall. This affects their forecast until 2021. In addition, German carmakers, particularly VW and BMW face higher penalties and are still suffering from bigger gaps in CO? performance for 2021, primarily due to the decline of diesel in their portfolio without direct alternatives in place today.
At the other end of the scale, there have been some positive developments, with Volvo, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover expected to meet the EU emissions targets. There has been a huge change at the top of the table, with Volvo a new number one, up from seventh last year. This is based on their strategy to not sell any more cars with combustion engines from 2019 onwards, which has resulted in a huge improvement in CO? performance ahead of 2021.
Jaguar Land Rover turns from amber to green for the first time now for 2021, achieving their specific target based on good progress for CO?performance in their fleet portfolio. Toyota remains number two, but also with significant improved CO? performance for 2021.
Emissions performance varies across countries but Norway leads the way. Norway has the lowest level of emissions and the highest use of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, which made up 29% of new car sales in 2016, reflecting its policy of banning the internal combustion engine by 2025.
In comparison, meeting the UK's ambitions to ban combustion engines by 2040 will be a challenge, due to the automotive sector's reliance on conventional engines, with the UK appearing towards the bottom end of the scale of European countries. Developments of alternatives lag behind other countries and it is not currently well placed to drive this shift to electric options, given it produces 2.5 million combustion engines a year, 15% of European total.
Car manufacturers face considerable challenges in meeting the 2021 CO? emissions targets. It is also obvious that almost all are now making significant investments in hybrids and electric vehicles to improve their performance. While some of these developments will come too late for the rapidly approaching 2021 deadline, we are seeing an increasingly sharp focus from manufacturers on new models and new approaches. These will be available to customers soon and could drive a significant change in the cars we buy.
Thomas Goettle, head of automotive, PA Consulting Group says: "Carmakers across Europe need to make radical changes in order to meet the EU CO? emissions targets for 2021. Many of them need to focus now on developing new models that will appeal to the consumer and help them meet their targets. There is nothing less than a revolution facing the car industry and those manufacturers who fail to keep up face potential fines in the billions."
How carmakers rank on CO2 emissions - some carmakers are still falling short
of meeting the 2021 targets
PA forecast (g Actual data (g CO2/km)** CO2/km)*** (g CO2/km) 2021 Rank* Carmaker 2011 2013 2015 2016 2018 2021 Target Deviation 1 Volvo 154,0 130,8 121,9 119,2 110,0 73,1 103,5 -30,4 2 Toyota 126,4 116,8 108,3 105,5 91,7 83,5 94,3 -10,8 3 Renault-Nissan 129,0 119,2 112,1 109,7 106,5 91,4 92,1 -0,7 4 Hyundai-Kia 134,0 129,8 127,3 124,4 115,3 94,9 91,7 3,2 PSA (Peugeot Citroen) + 5 Opel 128,5 115,7 104,6 110,3 104,4 95,6 92,6 3,0 6 Ford 132,7 121,8 118,0 120,0 110,8 96,1 93,0 3,1 7 Volkswagen 135,4 128,9 121,5 120,0 115,7 100,3 96,3 4,0 FCA (Fiat 8 Chrysler) 118,3 123,8 122,2 120,0 116,6 101,2 91,1 10,1 9 Daimler 153,0 136,6 124,7 124,7 117,2 102,1 100,7 1,4 10 BMW 145,0 134,4 126,4 121,4 119,3 104,7 100,3 4,4 JLR (Jaguar 11 Land Rover) 206,0 182,0 165,0 150,0 142,3 130,9 132,0 -1,1
*rank on 2021 forecast
**data from ICCT 2016
***based on actual data until 2016 (ICCT) and PA forecast estimation
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