Le Lézard
Classified in: Business
Subjects: NPT, ECO

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in May


NEW YORK, June 21, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 109.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in April, and a 0.4 percent increase in March.

(PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board)

"While May's increase in the U.S. LEI was slower than in recent months, the improvements in a majority of its components offset the declines in leading indicators of labor markets and residential construction," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 103.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and a 0.3 percent increase in March.   

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in May to 105.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in April, and a 0.2 percent decrease in March.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component ? primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Indextm
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2018


6-month


Mar


Apr


May


Nov to
May



















Leading Index

108.9

r

109.3

r

109.5

p



  Percent Change

0.4


0.4


0.2

p

3.0


  Diffusion

50.0


65.0


70.0


90.0











Coincident Index

103.3

r

103.5


103.7

p



  Percent Change

0.3

r

0.2

r

0.2

p

1.0


  Diffusion

100.0


100.0


75.0


100.0











Lagging Index

104.3

r

104.7


105.2

p



  Percent Change

-0.2

r

0.4

r

0.5

p

2.0


  Diffusion

57.1


78.6


64.3


85.7











p  Preliminary     r  Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2016









Source:  The Conference Board








 

SOURCE The Conference Board


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