Le Lézard
Classified in: Business
Subjects: NPT, ECO

Trade Disruptions May Derail Global Growth Momentum


NEW YORK, June 11, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Trade policy risk has overtaken other financial and economic risks as the biggest threat to the global economy's current growth momentum, according to The Conference Board's latest Global Economic Outlook.

 (PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board)

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018 provides projections for the output growth of the world economy, including 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 36 emerging market economies for 2018?2022 and 2023?27.

"For now, confidence among consumers and businesses remains strong, and a possible escalation in tit-for-tat tariffs or quotas is unlikely to push the global economy into reverse, in the near term," said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. "However, uncertainty could exacerbate a slowdown in global growth if businesses hold off on investment and hiring. Policy risks are therefore more likely to bring recession risks forward."

These developments, combined with the anticipated maturing of the business cycle, especially in mature economies, has led The Conference Board to revise global growth for 2018 to 3.2 percent, slightly down from its February projection of 3.3 percent.

Key Highlights: 

Mature Economies 

Momentum in mature economies improved last year and will continue growing at about the same pace through 2018. Collectively, mature economies are projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2018 (unchanged from 2017), and 1.9 percent during 2018-2022.

Emerging Markets 

Emerging markets are projected to grow by 3.9 percent on average in 2018, which is slightly down from 2017. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for emerging economies suggests that the growth momentum is moderating further, but there are significant differences across countries.

For more information on The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook/

For other information on economic data and analysis by The Conference Board:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board


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